Consumer debt is down sharply because consumers have been borrowing less and have been paying down lots of debt. Since March, consumers have been borrowing between $20 and $15 billion CAD each month, but they’ve been paying down between $20 and $25 billion CAD each month at the same time. In July, we see that consumer credit issuance is down over 11% from the same time last year, but credit destroyed (or paid down) is down only 8%.
We’re seeing a similar thing happen in the business credit market. Businesses are borrowing less and have substantially increased their debt repayments. In July, credit issuance was down over 5% from the same time last year, but credit destroyed up is over 20%! If this trend continues, the bank business credit market will be in contraction before the of the year. This will have profound implications for the labor market.