Posted in contractions

RBI Forecasts 9.5 Per Cent Plunge In Real GDP In FY 2020-21, Rural Demand To Lead Recovery

As the economy somewhat stabilises after a 23.9 per cent plunge in the GDP in the April-June quarter marred by the nationwide lockdown, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday (9 October) said that the deep contractions of Q1 are behind us and the real GDP may decline by 9.5 per cent in the financial year 2020-21.

Addressing the media after the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting, the RBI Governor has said that the modest recovery in various high-frequency indicators in September 2020 could strengthen further in the second half of 2020-21 with progressive unlocking of economic activity.

“Agriculture and allied activities could well lead the revival by boosting rural demand, ” he added.

Das said that relative to pre-Covid levels, several high frequency indicators are pointing to the easing of contractions in various sectors of the economy and the emergence of impulses of growth.

“By all indications,

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Baltic sovereigns face growth and fiscal shock, but GDP contractions are set to be among smallest in eurozone – Emerging Europe

Weaker public finances and the shock to economic growth, together with their potential impact on medium-term growth and fiscal dynamics, are the main channels through which the coronavirus pandemic can affect the sovereign credit ratings of the Baltic States, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.

However, the report notes that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are much better positioned to weather the current shock than they were during the global financial crisis; a period of multi-notch downgrades.

The economies of the three Baltic States are being hit hard by the pandemic. As small, open economies with relatively large transport sectors, they are vulnerable to the sharp fall in external demand, while domestic containment measures have hit household consumption, industrial production and what were until recently rapidly growing tourism sectors. However, the relatively quick easing of containment measures and fiscal stimulus packages have supported economic activity meaning the contractions in GDP

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GDP contractions: Modi govt. did nothing to stop slide, says Chidambaram

Former Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Monday said the provisional estimates for the first quarter of April to June didn’t come as a surprise as the Narendra Modi government ‘did nothing’ to stop the slide.

Most parts of the first quarter had seen a freeze in the economic activity under lockdown beginning March 25 because of the pandemic.

“The GDP reduces by 24%. The worst in independent India’s history. Unfortunately, the Govt ignored the warnings,” former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi said in a separate tweet and tagged his own video of March 17 in which he predicted “an economic tsunami and large scale devastation”.

“The estimates do not come as a surprise to us. They should be a matter of surprise to the government that was seeing ‘green shoots’ on several days during the first quarter. They should also be a matter of shame to the government that did nothing

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Posted in contractions

10 countries that have seen the largest GDP contractions

As per data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, India has recorded a GDP drop of 23.9 per cent, in the period April-June 2020. This is the worst contraction since India started reporting GDP data in 1996.

This has been corroborated by a graph that the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) chief economist, Gita Gopinath posted on Twitter, which shows that India saw the sharpest contraction among the G-20 nations.

India also saw one of the world’s strictest lockdown imposed in March, which has been extended multiple times since then. These have stalled economic activity and have led to the country’s economy being in the doldrums.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had earlier said that such a contraction is the result of an Act of God, inviting much trolling both from outside and within the party. India’s chief economic advisor, K Subramanian, however, has said that the contraction is

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